Robert Zubrin's New Book: Energy Victory

Robert Zubrin is best known as the President of the Mars Society, author of The Case for Mars and the Mars Direct plan to get humans to Mars, and other space-related work. This past weekend, however, I read his new book Energy Victory, figuring that with the following technical academic qualifications it would be interesting to see what he has to say about achieving energy independence:

He holds a B.A. in Mathematics, a masters degree in Aeronautics and Astronautics, a masters degree in Nuclear Engineering, and a Ph.D. in Nuclear Engineering.

(That's from the Case for Mars link above).

The book is an interesting read, and worth getting. There is a lot of Zubrin's save-the-world style that space advocates are familiar with. It doesn't just cover energy independence as it relates to defeating terrorism, but also many other political and social problems, like corruption, world poverty, global warming, the drug trade, and past wars, all from the perspective of "putting the world on the alcohol standard" instead of the oil standard. Zubrin, as usual, pulls no punches with either (or any) side of the political spectrum. His compliment for one Presidential candidate's policy is "a dwarf among Lilliputans" or something like that. When he's convinced he's right, that's that (sort of like ESAS and NASA Administrator Griffin I guess), but at least he puts up a good argument.

I read the book mainly to learn a bit about the technical side of the energy situation. Zubrin gives an easy-to-read overview of the pros and cons of ethanol and methanol, and he advocates that the U.S. mandate that all vehicles sold in the U.S. be flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs) able to run with E85 (85% ethanol), M85 (85% methanol), or gasoline. He makes the case that this would be relatively easy and cheap to implement using existing technology, and would give an incentive for gas stations to offer E85 and M85 (which are currently only offered in scattered locations because most cars aren't FFVs). This would allow investment in more ethanol and methanol production and R&D from countless sources that he describes. It would also provide a lot of help in the political and social areas I mentioned above (you'll have to read the book to see how). Such is his argument, and you can get a taste of it Front Page Magazine, The New Atlantis, and Cosmic Log.

As for prizes, he describes the Set America Free Coalition, which is interested in energy independence, and advocates the House version of a bill based on SAFC ideas. It has measure similar to Zubrin's idea to enforce E85/M85/gas flexibility in vehicles. From Thomas:

(4) FLEXIBLE FUEL VEHICLE- The term `flexible fuel vehicle' means a motor vehicle warranted by its manufacturer to operate on any and all blends of gasoline, E85, and M85.
(5) FUEL CHOICE-ENABLING MOTOR VEHICLE- The term `fuel choice-enabling motor vehicle' means--
(A) a flexible fuel motor vehicle; or
(B) a vehicle warranted by its manufacturer to operate on biodiesel.
...
(2) SCHEDULE- Not less than 50 percent of each light-duty motor vehicles manufacturer's annual production of passenger cars manufactured on and after January 1, 2012, and before January 1, 2013, and no less than 80 percent of each manufacturer's production of passenger cars manufactured on and after January 1, 2013 shall be fuel choice enabling motor vehicles or alternative fuel automobiles.

This bill includes a series of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Prizes. From The Library of Congress (Thomas):

SEC. 404. PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE PRIZE.

(a) In General- The Secretary of Energy (in this section referred to as the `Secretary') shall carry out a program to competitively award cash prizes to advance the research, development, demonstration, and commercial application of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle technology.

(b) Categories- The Secretary shall establish prizes for--
(1) batteries using nanotechnology for application in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles or in plug-in hybrid fuel cell vehicles;
(2) prototypes of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles that best meet or exceed objective performance criteria;

... skipping much of the prize section of the bill, including many other categories of prizes ...

(g) Authorization of Appropriations- There are authorized to be appropriated to the Secretary for carrying out this section $50,000,000 for each of the fiscal years 2008 through 2011, of which no more than $1,000,000 for any fiscal year may be used for administrative expenses. Funds appropriated pursuant to this subsection shall remain available until expended.

The Senate version doesn't have the provision Zubrin is looking for, but it does have Plug-in Hybrid Electric and Hydrogen Vehicle Prizes. Again from Thomas:

SEC. 207. PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC AND HYDROGEN VEHICLE PRIZES.

Section 1008 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (42 U.S.C. 16396) is amended--

(1) in subsection (c), by inserting `, including plug-in hybrid and hydrogen vehicle technologies' before the period at the end; and
(2) in subsection (e)(2)--
(A) by striking `$5,000,000' and inserting `$450,000,000'; and
(B) by inserting `, to remain available until expended' before the period at the end.

The hydrogen vehicle concept is demolished in Zubrin's book, by the way.

KEI on the H Prize

The KEI blog has a number of recent posts about the H-Prize. The link shows an earlier post I made on the topic, but the KEI posts give you more information and links on it. Here are the posts:

The H-Prize - on the reintroduction of the prize in the House, including this link to Representative Bob Inglis's page on the bill

H-Prize Act Passes House Committee

H-Prize Passes U.S. House 408-8

H-Prize Passes in House of Representatives

The H-Prize Act of 2007, a bill to make a hydrogen energy-related innovation incentive prize program, passed in the House 416-6. According to Inside Higher Ed, a similar bill is pending in the Senate. Every 2 years, four $1 million prizes will be available for various categories of hydrogen-related advances, and $4 million will be available for hydrogen vehicle advances.

Here's some more information from govtrack.us. This says the voting numbers were a bit different (but close enough). The projected cost is $1 per American from 2008-2012 (I'm not sure whether they're assuming there will always be prize winners or not). Here's the bill itself. A private, non-profit entity would be in charge of managing the prize, and would be allowed to get sponsor money to help run the prize. Prizes will be awarded for advances in hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen distribution, and hydrogen use (as well as hydrogen vehicles). There would also be a $10 million grand prize after 10 years for a "transformational technology". It looks like there would be judges to decide what the best advances are in each category after the fact, rather than a specific technology challenge to meet.

Here's some information from Congressman Lipinski on the prize program.

Some blog comments from Influence Peddler.

I'm not sure I would have picked this particular area, so difficult technically and difficult to bring to the market, out of all possible energy-related prizes. Also, I probably would have designed more specific challenges like the X PRIZEs, Centennial Challenges, and many others. Maybe I would have even "joined forces" with the Automotive X PRIZE or a similar non-profit effort, contributing to that prize or to complimentary goals (such as an 80 MPG version of the Automotive X PRIZE with stricter criteria in other areas related to marketability).

There are many examples of prizes in general areas, but having a competition with a specific, useful, measurable goal strikes me as bringing out more of a competitive spirit, and leaving less to the political whims of the judges. However, we will just have to see how the bill does in the Senate, and if it passes what happens afterwards. It's a good idea to try different variations on the "prizes" theme to see what works, and under what circumstances it works.

update on energy prizes

The automotive X Prize and the government H Prize are discussed by Alan Boyle. This article gives an update on what has been happening as attempts are made to kick off these energy prizes. I guess the automotive X Prize seems to make more sense to me, since it doesn't come with a predefined idea of what the solution to the problem is. Check out the discussions after the article, too. One of the comments describes some of the advantages of well-designed technology prizes. Alan also posts a link to an article by Robert Zubrin (president of the Mars Society which is sponsoring the Mars Rover prize, and author of The Case for Mars which discusses Mars-related technology prizes). This article contrasts hydrogen cars and a policy of mandating that all cars support ethanol, methanol, and regular gas (a subject he wrote about about the time of the LAST State of the Union address). It doesn't mention prizes for either approach, but you can think of ways to design prizes to achieve real energy goals so that only technologies that are actually demonstrated to not have serious drawbacks like the ones he suggests for hydrogen are able to win the prize.